Category: Blog

Warning Signs Abound, Price Powers Ahead

Full of cracks and warnings, the new bull market continues to chop higher. The S&P 500 has exceeded its June 8th high without much fanfare while the Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have still been unable to best their June highs. Of course, the NASDAQ 100 remains in a universe of its own although as we have discussed, it’s really just a handful of stocks. You know the ones. Apple, Facebook, Netflix, Amazon and Microsoft. The warning signs […]   Read More
Date: August 5, 2020

August Not Kind to Bulls… On The Surface

As the calendar turns to August, we see a month that has not been kind to the bulls, regardless of whether stocks began the month in an up or downtrend. Bulls have been lucky to escape the month in the black as the average return is right around the unchanged mark. Additionally, the two-month period of August and September has been the weakest two months of the year. While staying on the calendar, let’s hone in on election years overall […]   Read More
Date: August 3, 2020

Taxes, Retirement and Your Investment Strategies

In response to the economic hardship caused by COVID-19, the federal government extended this year’s tax-filing deadline from April 15 to July 15. The state of Connecticut also extended the deadline to match the new date. While this obviously gave Americans more time to file and pay any amount owed to Uncle Sam, this extension of the tax-filing deadline offers a number of other financial benefits – if you use it to your advantage. There are many long-term and short-term […]   Read More
Date: August 3, 2020

NASDAQ 100 Ceding Leadership

When we left off on Monday, it was time for the bulls to step up in technology as the insanely strong momentum streak had ended. Let’s give the bulls credit; they stepped up in a big way on Monday. However, that move was almost fully reversed on Tuesday. We have a good old fashioned tug o’ war as some of the NASDAQ 100’s largest components are set to release earnings. I will continue to take the glass half empty side […]   Read More
Date: July 29, 2020

Momentum Streak Ends for NASDAQ 100

On Friday I wrote about the NASDAQ 100 crossing a very obvious line in the sand that “everyone” has been watching. Remember, the NASDAQ 100 which is heavily weighted to Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google and Microsoft  had not closed below its average price of the past month since early April. In fact, I don’t even think it has seen back to back down days since early May. That’s a feat! In other words, it has had historically strong momentum. With […]   Read More
Date: July 27, 2020

NASDAQ 100 Crossing Line in the Sand

This is going to be a really short update because I am way behind schedule and stocks have been behaving as I have spelled out for two weeks. Today’s close will be somewhat important for the short-term as the bulls are on their heels, especially those playing momentum stocks. For weeks, I have written about the NASDAQ 100’s idiosyncratic behavior versus the other four major stock market indices. You can search the archives to read about how stretched this index […]   Read More
Date: July 24, 2020

NASDAQ 100 Reverses Again – Banks Need Some Lovin’

Continuing on my theme of a possible pullback or correction, the NADSAQ 100 has now reversed twice from the same level in two weeks. That means early strength has twice been thwarted by the bears with the tech index closing near its low for the day. You can see that in the two arrows below. We now have a very clear line in the sand drawn. If the bulls are  to win, they will quickly close above the 11,100 level […]   Read More
Date: July 22, 2020

Bulls Could Push for One More High Before Pulling Back

On Friday, I wrote about the Window of Opportunity for a stock market decline. I definitely did not say that stocks were about to plummet. The conditions were building that the chance for a bout of weakness was growing IF the NASDAQ 100 rolled over and IF the other major stock market indices did not surge. I also wrote that I thought it could be a July or August story for the window to be open and not a very […]   Read More
Date: July 20, 2020

Social Security and COVID-19: 5 Things You Should Know

We’re more than halfway through 2020 and one thing is abundantly clear – the Coronavirus is just as much a financial crisis as it is a health crisis. Millions of Americans have watched their nest eggs dwindle due to stock market declines, layoffs and furloughs. This crisis has affected us all, but anyone retiring in the next year or two is especially vulnerable as they prepare to pull from retirement accounts and collect Social Security. When conducting a financial analysis […]   Read More
Date: July 20, 2020

Window of Opportunity Opening for a Broad Stock Market Decline

On Wednesday, for those were able to read to the end of the update, I did something I haven’t done in a while, broach the idea that stocks could could go down for more than a brief pullback. I continue to warm to that idea. Let’s start with the top chart below which is 10 and 20 day average of the NASDAQ volume versus NYSE volume. You can see that since the bull market launched on March 23rd, there has […]   Read More
Date: July 17, 2020